Estimating the effects of preventive and weight-management interventions on the prevalence of childhood obesity in England: a modelling study

BACKGROUND: The effects of the systematic delivery of treatments for obesity are unknown. We aimed to estimate the potential effects on the prevalence of childhood obesity of systematically offering preventive and treatment interventions to eligible children in England, based on weight or health status. METHODS: For this modelling study, we developed a cross-sectional simulation model of the child and young adult population in England using data from multiple years of the Health Survey of England conducted between Jan 1, 2010, and Dec 31, 2019. Individuals were assessed for eligibility via age, BMI, and medical complications. Weight status was defined based on clinical criteria used by the UK National Institute of Health and Care Excellence. Published systematic reviews were used to estimate effect sizes for treatments, uptake, and completion for each weight-management tier. We used all available evidence, including evidence from studies that showed an unfavourable effect. We estimated the effects of two systematic approaches: a staged approach, in which children and young people were simultaneously given the most intensive treatment for which they were eligible, and a stepped approach, in which each management tier was applied sequentially, with additive effects. The primary outcomes were estimated prevalence of clinical obesity, defined as a BMI ≥98th centile on the UK90 growth chart, and difference in comparison with the estimated baseline prevalence. FINDINGS: 18 080 children and young people were included in the analytical sample. Baseline prevalence of clinical obesity was estimated to be 11·2% (95% CI 10·5 to 11·8) for children and young people aged 2-18 years. In modelling, we estimated absolute decreases in the prevalence of obesity of 0·9% (95% CI 0·1 to 1·8) for universal, preventive interventions; 0·2% (0·1 to 0·4) for interventions within a primary-care setting; 1·0% (0·1 to 2·1) for community and lifestyle interventions; 0·2% (0·0 to 0·4) for pharmaceutical interventions; and 0·4% (0·1 to 0·7) for surgical interventions. Staged care was estimated to result in an absolute decrease in the prevalence of obesity of 1·3% (-0·3 to 2·4) and stepped care was estimated to lead to an absolute decrease of 2·4% (0·1 to 4·8). INTERPRETATION: Although individual effect sizes for prevention and treatment interventions were small, when delivered at scale across England, these interventions have the potential to meaningfully contribute to reducing the prevalence of childhood obesity. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health and Care Research

Basic vocabulary and Bayesian phylolinguistics

Donohue et al.’s critique of our work on the origins and spread of the Austronesian language family is marred by misunderstandings of our approach. We respond to these by noting that our Bayesian phylogenetic approach: (1) distinguishes between retentions and innovations probabilistically, (2) focuses on basic vocabulary not ‘the lexicon’, (3) eliminates known loanwords, (4) produces results that are congruent with the results of the comparative method and conflict with the scenarios requiring unprecedented amounts of language shift postulated by Donohue et al

Associations between parenting partners' objectively-assessed physical activity and Body Mass Index: A cross-sectional study

AbstractObjectiveFamily members have the capacity to influence each other's health behaviours. This study examined whether there were associations in the objectively assessed physical activity and Body Mass Index (BMI) of mothers and fathers.MethodsRecruitment took place in Bristol (UK) during 2012/13. Participants were 272 pairs of parents (dyads) that wore an accelerometer for at least 500min on 3 or more days. Parents provided demographic information and self-reported height and weight. Multi-variable linear and logistic regression models examined the relationships between parents' moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and BMI.ResultsMVPA minutes (r=0.26, p<0.001) and Body Mass Index (r=0.20, p=0.002) of parents were correlated. Logistic regression analysis showed that mothers were almost twice (OR 1.87, p<0.05) as likely to be overweight or obese when fathers were. Linear regression models showed that at the weekend every 9min of paternal MVPA was associated with 3min of maternal MVPA (r=0.34, p<0.001).ConclusionsBoth physical activity and BMI of parenting partners were associated. Since parents tend to share home environments and often perform activities together or as a family, then behavioural changes in one parent may have a ripple effect for other family members

Is it possible to model the impact of calorie-reduction interventions on childhood obesity at a population level and across the range of deprivation: Evidence from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC)

BACKGROUND: Simulated interventions using observational data have the potential to inform policy and public health interventions where randomised controlled trials are not feasible. National childhood obesity policy is one such area. Overweight and obesity are primarily caused by energy-rich and low-nutrient diets that contribute to a positive net energy imbalance. Using data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), we investigated whether causal modelling techniques could be applied to simulate the potential impact of policy-relevant calorie-reduction interventions on population prevalence and inequalities in obesity in childhood. METHODS: Predicted probabilities of obesity at age 11 (UK90 cut offs) were estimated from logistic marginal structural models (MSM) accounting for observed calorie consumption at age 7 and confounding, overall and by maternal occupational social class. A series of population intervention scenarios were modelled to simulate daily calorie-reduction interventions that differed in effectiveness, targeting mechanism and programme uptake level. RESULTS: The estimated effect of maternal social class on obesity after accounting for confounding and observed calorie intake was provided by the controlled direct effect (CDE), in which, 18.3% of children were living with obesity at age 11 years,. A universal simulation to lower median intake to the estimated average requirement (EAR) (a 6.1% reduction in daily calories) with 75% uptake reduced overall obesity prevalence by 0.6%; there was little impact on inequalities. A targeted intervention to limit consumption to the EAR for children with above average intake reduced population obesity prevalence at 11 years by 1.5% but inequalities remained broadly unchanged. A targeted intervention for children of low-income families reduced prevalence by 0.7% and was found to slightly reduce inequalities. CONCLUSIONS: MSMs allow estimation of effects of simulated calorie-reduction interventions on childhood obesity prevalence and inequalities, although estimates are limited by the accuracy of reported calorie intake. Further work is needed to understand causal pathways and opportunities for intervention. Nevertheless, simulated intervention techniques have promise for informing national policy where experimental data are not available

Adherence to the Mediterranean diet among employees in South West England: formative research to inform a web-based, work-place nutrition intervention

Objective: The aim of this study is to assess internet usage patterns and adherence to the Mediterranean diet among employees in South West England, UK and their differences by personal characteristics. Method: A cross-sectional survey was conducted in 2014 among 590 adults (428 women, 162 men, mean age 43.8 years), employees of four work-place settings. Mediterranean diet adherence was assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire. Adherence differences were assessed by gender, marital status, education, number of children and food shopping and preparation responsibility. Results: On average, participants reported moderate adherence to the Mediterranean diet. Higher adherence was reported for alcohol, vegetables, cereals and fruit. Few participants achieved high adherence to the Mediterranean diet recommendations for legumes (5.3%), fish (3.2%), dairy products (4.8%), red meat (11.9%), poultry (11.1%) and olive oil (18.2%). A higher Mediterranean diet score was reported among participants who were married/cohabiting, those with higher education attainment and shared responsibility for food preparation. Conclusion: Improvement in the consumption of several Mediterranean diet components is needed to increase adherence in this sample of adults. The findings have the potential to inform the development of a web-based intervention that will focus on these foods to promote the Mediterranean diet in work-place settings in South West England

How Accurate and Robust Are the Phylogenetic Estimates of Austronesian Language Relationships?

We recently used computational phylogenetic methods on lexical data to test between two scenarios for the peopling of the Pacific. Our analyses of lexical data supported a pulse-pause scenario of Pacific settlement in which the Austronesian speakers originated in Taiwan around 5,200 years ago and rapidly spread through the Pacific in a series of expansion pulses and settlement pauses. We claimed that there was high congruence between traditional language subgroups and those observed in the language phylogenies, and that the estimated age of the Austronesian expansion at 5,200 years ago was consistent with the archaeological evidence. However, the congruence between the language phylogenies and the evidence from historical linguistics was not quantitatively assessed using tree comparison metrics. The robustness of the divergence time estimates to different calibration points was also not investigated exhaustively. Here we address these limitations by using a systematic tree comparison metric to calculate the similarity between the Bayesian phylogenetic trees and the subgroups proposed by historical linguistics, and by re-estimating the age of the Austronesian expansion using only the most robust calibrations. The results show that the Austronesian language phylogenies are highly congruent with the traditional subgroupings, and the date estimates are robust even when calculated using a restricted set of historical calibrations

Feasibility trial evaluation of a physical activity and screen-viewing course for parents of 6 to 8 year-old children : Teamplay

Background: Many children spend too much time screen-viewing (watching TV, surfing the internet and playing video games) and do not meet physical activity (PA) guidelines. Parents are important influences on children’s PA and screen-viewing (SV). There is a shortage of parent-focused interventions to change children’s PA and SV. Methods: Teamplay was a two arm individualized randomized controlled feasibility trial. Participants were parents of 6–8 year old children. Intervention participants were invited to attend an eight week parenting program with each session lasting 2 hours. Children and parents wore an accelerometer for seven days and minutes of moderate-to-vigorous intensity PA (MVPA) were derived. Parents were also asked to report the average number of hours per day that both they and the target child spent watching TV. Measures were assessed at baseline (time 0) at the end of the intervention (week 8) and 2 months after the intervention had ended (week 16). Results: There were 75 participants who provided consent and were randomized but 27 participants withdrew post-randomization. Children in the intervention group engaged in 2.6 fewer minutes of weekday MVPA at Time 1 but engaged in 11 more minutes of weekend MVPA. At Time 1 the intervention parents engaged in 9 more minutes of weekday MVPA and 13 more minutes of weekend MVPA. The proportion of children in the intervention group watching ≥ 2 hours per day of TV on weekend days decreased after the intervention (time 0 = 76%, time 1 = 39%, time 2 = 50%), while the control group proportion increased slightly (79%, 86% and 87%). Parental weekday TV watching decreased in both groups. In post-study interviews many mothers reported problems associated with wearing the accelerometers. In terms of a future full-scale trial, a sample of between 80 and 340 families would be needed to detect a mean difference of 10-minutes of weekend MVPA. Conclusions: Teamplay is a promising parenting program in an under-researched area. The intervention was acceptable to parents, and all elements of the study protocol were successfully completed. Simple changes to the trial protocol could result in more complete data collection and study engagement

Simultaneous in vivo positron emission tomography and magnetic resonance imaging

Positron emission tomography (PET) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) are widely used in vivo imaging technologies with both clinical and biomedical research applications. The strengths of MRI include high-resolution, high-contrast morphologic imaging of soft tissues; the ability to image physiologic parameters such as diffusion and changes in oxygenation level resulting from neuronal stimulation; and the measurement of metabolites using chemical shift imaging. PET images the distribution of biologically targeted radiotracers with high sensitivity, but images generally lack anatomic context and are of lower spatial resolution. Integration of these technologies permits the acquisition of temporally correlated data showing the distribution of PET radiotracers and MRI contrast agents or MR-detectable metabolites, with registration to the underlying anatomy. An MRI-compatible PET scanner has been built for biomedical research applications that allows data from both modalities to be acquired simultaneously. Experiments demonstrate no effect of the MRI system on the spatial resolution of the PET system and <10% reduction in the fraction of radioactive decay events detected by the PET scanner inside the MRI. The signal-to-noise ratio and uniformity of the MR images, with the exception of one particular pulse sequence, were little affected by the presence of the PET scanner. In vivo simultaneous PET and MRI studies were performed in mice. Proof-of-principle in vivo MR spectroscopy and functional MRI experiments were also demonstrated with the combined scanner

Parental modelling, media equipment and screen-viewing among young children : cross-sectional study

Objective: To examine whether parental screenviewing, parental attitudes or access to media equipment were associated with the screen-viewing of 6-year-old to 8-year-old children. Design: Cross-sectional survey. Setting: Online survey. Main outcome: Parental report of the number of hours per weekday that they and, separately, their 6- year-old to 8-year-old child spent watching TV, using a games console, a smart-phone and multiscreen viewing. Parental screen-viewing, parental attitudes and pieces of media equipment were exposures. Results: Over 75% of the parents and 62% of the children spent more than 2 h/weekday watching TV. Over two-thirds of the parents and almost 40% of the children spent more than an hour per day multiscreen viewing. The mean number of pieces of media equipment in the home was 5.9 items, with 1.3 items in the child’s bedroom. Children who had parents who spent more than 2 h/day watching TV were over 7.8 times more likely to exceed the 2 h threshold. Girls and boys who had a parent who spent an hour or more multiscreen viewing were 34 times more likely to also spend more than an hour per day multiscreen viewing. Media equipment in the child’s bedroom was associated with higher TV viewing, computer time and multiscreen viewing. Each increment in the parental agreement that watching TV was relaxing for their child was associated with a 49% increase in the likelihood that the child spent more than 2 h/day watching TV. Conclusions: Children who have parents who engage in high levels of screen-viewing are more likely to engage in high levels of screen-viewing. Access to media equipment, particularly in the child’s bedroom, was associated with higher levels of screen-viewing. Family-based strategies to reduce screen-viewing and limit media equipment access may be important ways to reduce child screen-viewing